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borntoolate.eth: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x14c3…df68 · Tailwhale rank #108 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
53/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+6.1 pts
Win rate
63% of positions
Markets traded
191 in 180 days
PnL: $162,676 this month · ROI on closed positions 0.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
53.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 51/100 | 20.5 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +6.1 pts on 219 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-3.2%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 191 | 7.6 | 191 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +6.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 219 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +6.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 63% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $74,702 |
| politics | $36,583 |
| crypto | $13,894 |
| tech | $12,423 |
| finance | $5,925 |
| culture | $3,852 |
| esports | $1,416 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 33¢ | $152 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 44¢ | $1,516 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? | 35¢ | $700 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 91¢ | $8,271 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 93¢ | $1,695 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | 94¢ | $486 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 37¢ | $555 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 8¢ | $64 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 6¢ | $81 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 82¢ | $874 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 41¢ | $84 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | 41¢ | $54 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | 20¢ | $96 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 74¢ | $204 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 80¢ | $4,032 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | $131,460 | 51¢ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $71,385 | 50¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.