Traders › Car
Car: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x7c3d…5c6b · Tailwhale rank #139 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
47/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+0.7 pts
Win rate
59% of positions
Markets traded
1,456 in 180 days
PnL: $314,742 this month · $1,577,442 all time · ROI on closed positions 0.8%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
47.3 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 23/100 | 9.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +0.7 pts on 1602 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 3/100 | 0.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 83/100 | 12.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1456 | 10.0 | 1456 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +0.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1602 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +0.6 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 59% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $1,147,198 |
| crypto | $137,803 |
| culture | $86,729 |
| tech | $53,887 |
| finance | $45,967 |
| sports | $19,470 |
| weather | $1,382 |
| esports | $1,130 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026? | 36¢ | $184 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 70¢ | $126 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | 30¢ | $523 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30? | 62¢ | $865 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30? | 64¢ | $160 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15? | 39¢ | $15 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 22¢ | $44 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 12¢ | $64 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will BLACKPINK perform at Coachella 2027? | 21¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31? | 53¢ | $635 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2028? | 34¢ | $27 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 14¢ | $27 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will it be confirmed that an equipment, software, power or telecommunications failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 94¢ | $944 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 11¢ | $119 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 55¢ | $11 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | $21,989 | 98¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $13,880 | 86¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | $7,710 | 98¢ |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $2,326 | 9¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | $2,181 | 96¢ |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | $1,649 | 97¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | $1,246 | 12¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.