Traders › cocos228
cocos228: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x8e5c…a68a · Tailwhale rank #81 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
58/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+8.7 pts
Win rate
72% of positions
Markets traded
53 in 180 days
PnL: $67,177 this month · ROI on closed positions 19.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
57.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 38/100 | 15.1 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +8.7 pts on 51 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 33/100 | 6.7 | Return with the three best positions removed (+6.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 53 | 5.7 | 53 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +8.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 51 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +8.8 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 72% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $598,645 |
| sports | $5,792 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 100¢ | $50 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 94¢ | $311 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 97¢ | $25,000 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | 94¢ | $4,958 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 93¢ | $1,000 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Iran leadership change by December 31? | 91¢ | $10,000 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 86¢ | $16,881 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 87¢ | $1,070 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 100¢ | $1,070 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 87¢ | $12,255 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | 6¢ | $32 |
| 2026-11-02 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | 83¢ | $9,487 |
| 2026-11-02 | Sold No | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 95¢ | $9,500 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bought Yes | Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M? | 62¢ | $17 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought Yes | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 67¢ | $8,924 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $124,844 | 76¢ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | $28,969 | 80¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $18,100 | 33¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.