Traders › elmcap2
elmcap2: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xed10…d2e5 · Tailwhale rank #189 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
41/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+0.4 pts
Win rate
88% of positions
Markets traded
709 in 180 days
PnL: – · $2,430,463 all time · ROI on closed positions 0.8%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
40.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 8/100 | 3.1 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +0.4 pts on 697 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 2/100 | 0.4 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 83/100 | 12.5 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 709 | 9.5 | 709 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +0.4 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 697 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +0.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 88% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $857,301 |
| crypto | $155,241 |
| culture | $149,643 |
| tech | $20,579 |
| finance | $19,072 |
| sports | −$17,189 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Jensen Huang be arrested by November 30, 2026? | 99¢ | $1,426 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by November 13? | 97¢ | $1,782 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Chris Duncan | UFC 334: Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) | 62¢ | $427 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Charles Radtke | UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims) | 44¢ | $233 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | 98¢ | $2,361 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 98¢ | $36,226 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 98¢ | $9,750 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 94¢ | $22,428 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 88¢ | $13,015 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Fetterman out by December 31, 2026? | 96¢ | $262 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | 97¢ | $68 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | 98¢ | $1,809 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | 98¢ | $460 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | 98¢ | $1,019 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? | 96¢ | $96 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | $3,809,250 | 50¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $690,750 | 50¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | $542,116 | 96¢ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | $433,663 | 94¢ |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | $340,558 | 97¢ |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | $222,192 | 90¢ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | $68,999 | 97¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | $23,985 | 98¢ |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | $12,369 | 98¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.