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flawfence: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x23d8…0288 · Tailwhale rank #130 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
48/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+3.8 pts
Win rate
48% of positions
Markets traded
678 in 180 days
PnL: $546,576 this month · $999,799 all time · ROI on closed positions 7.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
48.2 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 35/100 | 14.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +3.8 pts on 744 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 13/100 | 2.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+2.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 75/100 | 11.2 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 71/100 | 10.7 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 678 | 9.4 | 678 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +3.8 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 744 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +3.8 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 48% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $964,868 |
| sports | $34,548 |
| crypto | $8,748 |
| weather | −$2,505 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Sold No | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | 84¢ | $9,604 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold No | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | 84¢ | $4,066 |
| 2026-11-08 | Sold No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 81¢ | $11,534 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sold No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 79¢ | $4,803 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sold No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 79¢ | $9,605 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought No | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 29¢ | $388 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought Yes | Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 27¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sold Yes | Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 28¢ | $821 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought Yes | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 59¢ | $5,082 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought No | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 33¢ | $162 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sold No | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 35¢ | $2,197 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sold No | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 40¢ | $1,393 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought No | Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 19¢ | $1,267 |
| 2026-11-07 | Bought Yes | Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 16¢ | $756 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sold No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 79¢ | $3,208 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $299,867 | 64¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | $450 | 17¢ |
Get alerts when flawfence trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.