Traders › Gucky-45
Gucky-45: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xe613…540e · Tailwhale rank #22 by skill · ★★★★★
Skill Score
81/100 · 5★
Beat the odds
+0.3 pts
Win rate
39% of positions
Markets traded
1,272 in 180 days
PnL: $164,407 this month · ROI on closed positions 10.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 5 stars: the score breakdown
80.6 out of 100 → 5★ (80–100 = 5★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 100/100 | 40.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +0.3 pts on 1075 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 14/100 | 2.8 | Return with the three best positions removed (+2.8%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1272 | 10.0 | 1272 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +0.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1075 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +0.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 39% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| sports | $94,640 |
| politics | $46,107 |
| esports | $6,522 |
| crypto | $5,013 |
| culture | $1,917 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will Real Betis win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 1¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election? | 2¢ | $695 |
| 2026-11-07 | Sold Yes | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | 45¢ | $154 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Napoli win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 2¢ | $34 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 2¢ | $36 |
| 2026-11-05 | Sold Yes | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 6¢ | $137 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | 1¢ | $111 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? | 1¢ | $12 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan? | 1¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine? | 0¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | 0¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? | 1¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas? | 0¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-03 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Texas? | 0¢ | $12 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | $9,203 | 50¢ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $5,498 | 50¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.