Traders › JokerTheClown
JokerTheClown: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x819d…07f1 · Tailwhale rank #160 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
44/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−6.0 pts
Win rate
50% of positions
Markets traded
1,961 in 180 days
PnL: $146,013 this month · ROI on closed positions 15.6%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
44.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -6.0 pts on 2304 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 49/100 | 9.7 | Return with the three best positions removed (+9.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 63/100 | 9.4 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1961 | 10.0 | 1961 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -6.0 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 2304 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -6.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 50% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $115,405 |
| sports | $62,395 |
| tech | $20,249 |
| finance | $18,158 |
| esports | $6,565 |
| crypto | −$1,766 |
| weather | −$3,824 |
| culture | −$8,017 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November 2027? | 91¢ | $10 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in April 2027? | 91¢ | $46 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "The Cat in the Hat" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 12m? | 91¢ | $365 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | 65¢ | $381 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | 58¢ | $359 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will "Victorian Psycho" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m? | 98¢ | $444 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will "How to Rob a Bank" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m? | 99¢ | $995 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "How to Rob a Bank" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m? | 99¢ | $434 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m? | 91¢ | $387 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will "Ebenezer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m? | 96¢ | $2,060 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Spirit | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs | 47¢ | $3,290 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought UCLA | Spread: UCLA (-10.5) | 66¢ | $4,836 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 10:00 PM ET? | 99¢ | $12,175 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 10:00 PM ET? | 29¢ | $2,568 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 10:00 PM ET? | 37¢ | $140 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $26,587 | 77¢ |
Get alerts when JokerTheClown trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.