Traders › mr.ozi
mr.ozi: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x614d…1546 · Tailwhale rank #100 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
55/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+3.3 pts
Win rate
61% of positions
Markets traded
354 in 180 days
PnL: $269,739 this month · $979,106 all time · ROI on closed positions 9.9%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
54.5 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 38/100 | 15.4 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +3.3 pts on 377 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 29/100 | 5.8 | Return with the three best positions removed (+5.8%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 354 | 8.5 | 354 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +3.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 377 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +3.2 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 61% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $926,311 |
| crypto | $12,500 |
| weather | $2,573 |
| finance | $1,106 |
| culture | −$38,985 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | Bought Yes | Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 88¢ | $3,080 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026? | 41¢ | $410 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026? | 46¢ | $1,867 |
| 2026-11-06 | Sold Yes | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 46¢ | $105 |
| 2026-11-06 | Sold Yes | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 74¢ | $7,439 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 53¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 62¢ | $215 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 76¢ | $3,595 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 81¢ | $519 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 9¢ | $85 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | 66¢ | $4,993 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | 21¢ | $399 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | 23¢ | $421 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | 4¢ | $51 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 3¢ | $162 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $46,854 | 88¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.