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surf: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xfd2b…8e50 · Tailwhale rank #155 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
45/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+15.0 pts
Win rate
59% of positions
Markets traded
47 in 180 days
PnL: $338,757 this month · ROI on closed positions -12.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
45 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 58/100 | 23.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +15.0 pts on 51 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-33.4%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 83/100 | 12.5 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 25/100 | 3.8 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 47 | 5.6 | 47 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +15.0 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 51 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +15.0 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 59% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $200,067 |
| culture | $52,941 |
| sports | $49,363 |
| tech | $8,707 |
| crypto | $5,509 |
| finance | −$37,317 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 44¢ | $334 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | 37¢ | $376 |
| 2026-11-06 | Bought Yes | Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 45¢ | $56 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 9¢ | $86 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 9¢ | $14 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 10¢ | $199 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 10¢ | $48 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 12¢ | $497 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 11¢ | $247 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 11¢ | $1,126 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 10¢ | $1,117 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 41¢ | $106 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 33¢ | $764 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 34¢ | $2,193 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | 34¢ | $469 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $220,095 | 51¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | $5,250 | 92¢ |
Get alerts when surf trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.