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thoodr: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x3eae…e2ed · Tailwhale rank #80 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
58/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−0.2 pts
Win rate
97% of positions
Markets traded
863 in 180 days
PnL: $71,246 this month · ROI on closed positions 1.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
57.8 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 50/100 | 20.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -0.2 pts on 864 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 5/100 | 1.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (+1.0%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 863 | 9.8 | 863 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -0.2 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 864 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | -0.2 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 97% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Calibration counted as zero because beat-the-odds is negative.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $106,744 |
| sports | $19,585 |
| culture | $16,819 |
| finance | $3,443 |
| tech | −$14,348 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot? | 96¢ | $383 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? | 96¢ | $7,968 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election? | 91¢ | $17 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | 90¢ | $108 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 95¢ | $5,992 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026? | 97¢ | $2,841 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026? | 100¢ | $4,647 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Sam Altman join Trump at APEC in China? | 90¢ | $127 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Jensen Huang join Trump at APEC in China? | 100¢ | $30 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Marco Rubio join Trump at APEC in China? | 93¢ | $19 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Elon Musk join Trump at APEC in China? | 93¢ | $33 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of APEC trip? | 99¢ | $11,181 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC? | 98¢ | $3,041 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | GTA VI released by November 30? | 99¢ | $851 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | GTA VI released by November 30? | 99¢ | $1,786 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | $101,240 | 94¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $88,060 | 83¢ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | $9,144 | 97¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.