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tunatyler: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xf1f9…1245 · Tailwhale rank #47 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
70/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+11.7 pts
Win rate
52% of positions
Markets traded
238 in 180 days
PnL: $189,144 this month · ROI on closed positions 19.3%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
70.2 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 60/100 | 24.1 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +11.7 pts on 241 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 62/100 | 12.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+12.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 238 | 7.9 | 238 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +11.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 241 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +11.3 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 52% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $249,651 |
| culture | $31,005 |
| crypto | $20,285 |
| sports | $8,479 |
| finance | $4,982 |
| tech | $1,455 |
| esports | −$2,623 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? | 87¢ | $2,241 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 56¢ | $580 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 41¢ | $189 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold No | Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | 98¢ | $14,364 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election? | 24¢ | $481 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | 51¢ | $87 |
| 2026-11-09 | Bought No | Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election? | 27¢ | $27 |
| 2026-11-08 | Bought Yes | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 3¢ | $212 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | 37¢ | $203 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 80¢ | $8,000 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? | 11¢ | $1,100 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 5¢ | $58 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 9¢ | $157 |
| 2026-11-04 | Sold No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 13¢ | $13 |
| 2026-11-03 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 28¢ | $400 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $16,820 | 10¢ |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $1,280 | 2¢ |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $421 | 2¢ |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $320 | 1¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.