Traders › twinna
twinna: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xa43d…00f4 · Tailwhale rank #37 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
77/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+14.5 pts
Win rate
62% of positions
Markets traded
150 in 180 days
PnL: $82,688 this month · ROI on closed positions 29.0%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
76.8 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 84/100 | 33.8 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +14.5 pts on 162 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 88/100 | 17.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+17.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 71/100 | 10.7 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 150 | 7.3 | 150 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +14.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 162 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +14.6 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 62% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $61,331 |
| crypto | $14,685 |
| sports | −$3,337 |
| culture | −$3,514 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | Bought Yes | Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 0¢ | $300 |
| 2026-11-02 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat? | 35¢ | $398 |
| 2026-10-29 | Sold No | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 69¢ | $6,900 |
| 2026-10-29 | Sold Yes | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 69¢ | $10,350 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought Yes | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%? | 18¢ | $88 |
| 2026-10-28 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | 68¢ | $5,100 |
| 2026-10-27 | Bought No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 76¢ | $2,280 |
| 2026-10-27 | Bought Yes | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 68¢ | $931 |
| 2026-10-27 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 20¢ | $1,500 |
| 2026-10-27 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | 61¢ | $2,767 |
| 2026-10-26 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? | 64¢ | $32 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought No | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 51¢ | $2,040 |
| 2026-10-23 | Bought Yes | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 37¢ | $91 |
| 2026-10-22 | Bought Yes | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat? | 68¢ | $1,188 |
| 2026-10-22 | Bought No | Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat? | 30¢ | $75 |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.