Traders › 0xcf19…6402
0xcf19…6402: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xcf19…6402 · Tailwhale rank #135 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
48/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+4.9 pts
Win rate
52% of positions
Markets traded
266 in 180 days
PnL: $65,774 this month · ROI on closed positions 4.9%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
48.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 56/100 | 22.4 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +4.9 pts on 271 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-2.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 60/100 | 9.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 57/100 | 8.6 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 266 | 8.1 | 266 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +4.9 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 271 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +4.6 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 52% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $196,408 |
| sports | $52,177 |
| finance | $6,338 |
| crypto | −$1,032 |
| tech | −$2,834 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 3¢ | $1,034 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 17¢ | $5,386 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 44¢ | $28 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | 24¢ | $4,043 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | 13¢ | $1,471 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 33¢ | $6,391 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 31¢ | $441 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 88¢ | $24,702 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 12¢ | $909 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 90¢ | $16,183 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold No | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 15¢ | $21 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 61¢ | $866 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 3¢ | $173 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 3¢ | $1,555 |
| 2026-11-10 | Sold Yes | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | 4¢ | $5,197 |
Open positions in top markets
Get alerts when 0xcf19…6402 trades, and see what copying them would really have returned, in the Tailwhale iPhone app. Download on the App Store (coming soon).
The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.