Traders › Cheerful-Ephemera
Cheerful-Ephemera: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xdf17…97d1 · Tailwhale rank #129 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
49/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+1.5 pts
Win rate
68% of positions
Markets traded
808 in 180 days
PnL: $169,050 this month · $1,120,279 all time · ROI on closed positions 2.4%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
48.9 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 37/100 | 14.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +1.5 pts on 887 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 2/100 | 0.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+0.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 75/100 | 11.2 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 808 | 9.7 | 808 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +1.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 887 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +1.6 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 68% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $955,716 |
| crypto | $130,950 |
| tech | $40,488 |
| sports | $36,270 |
| finance | $13,437 |
| weather | $10,106 |
| esports | −$10,106 |
| culture | −$39,973 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Rene Haas be the next CEO of NVIDIA? | 74¢ | $3,023 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31? | 38¢ | $219 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond? | 56¢ | $537 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Sean Duffy announced out as Secretary of Transportation by November 30? | 89¢ | $308 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 86¢ | $803 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold No | Jensen Huang admits to another affair with a woman by December 31? | 73¢ | $2,174 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 66¢ | $280 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13? | 66¢ | $330 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | FAA outage attributed to hack? | 94¢ | $1,504 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | FAA outage attributed to Iran? | 98¢ | $23,044 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | FAA outage attributed to Iran? | 98¢ | $1,084 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | FAA outage attributed to Iran? | 98¢ | $5,870 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor? | 96¢ | $213 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | FAA outage attributed to hack? | 96¢ | $1,067 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | FAA outage attributed to hack? | 96¢ | $384 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $68,662 | 75¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $26,353 | 87¢ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | $18,109 | 95¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | $7,901 | 24¢ |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | $6,343 | 97¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | $3,828 | 95¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.