Traders › Dropper
Dropper: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x6bab…1292 · Tailwhale rank #127 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
49/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+3.2 pts
Win rate
52% of positions
Markets traded
214 in 180 days
PnL: $288,379 this month · $1,690,048 all time · ROI on closed positions 8.6%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
49.2 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 23/100 | 9.3 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +3.2 pts on 258 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 22/100 | 4.3 | Return with the three best positions removed (+4.3%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 86/100 | 12.9 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 214 | 7.8 | 214 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +3.2 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 258 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +3.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 52% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $702,753 |
| crypto | $457,570 |
| culture | $145,565 |
| tech | $120,085 |
| sports | $79,249 |
| finance | $45,492 |
| esports | $12,683 |
| weather | $1,143 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 38¢ | $4,291 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 63¢ | $3,636 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 23¢ | $4,917 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? | 86¢ | $322 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | 48¢ | $2,621 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? | 81¢ | $1,077 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026? | 69¢ | $296 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 84¢ | $5,182 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 82¢ | $3,602 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 20¢ | $494 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 31¢ | $1,962 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027? | 23¢ | $1,152 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 30¢ | $1,821 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 24¢ | $854 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 16? | 100¢ | $14,638 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $59,878 | 79¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $55,162 | 67¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | $36,765 | 91¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | $2,329 | 83¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.