Traders › Kickstand7
Kickstand7: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xd1ac…08d5 · Tailwhale rank #107 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
53/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+9.6 pts
Win rate
52% of positions
Markets traded
42 in 180 days
PnL: $108,025 this month · $1,593,510 all time · ROI on closed positions 1.5%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
53.1 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 52/100 | 20.6 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +9.6 pts on 49 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-0.2%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 42 | 5.4 | 42 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +9.6 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 49 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +9.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 52% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $871,761 |
| culture | $139,269 |
| sports | $135,320 |
| tech | $38,933 |
| crypto | $18,091 |
| finance | $10,052 |
| esports | $4,246 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | Sold Yes | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | 98¢ | $98 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 30¢ | $559 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | 30¢ | $767 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought Yes | Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | 10¢ | $114 |
| 2026-10-29 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | 10¢ | $532 |
| 2026-10-27 | Bought No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 67¢ | $2,300 |
| 2026-10-27 | Bought No | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 73¢ | $270 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought No | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 4¢ | $1,944 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought Yes | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 4¢ | $4,685 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought Yes | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 5¢ | $5,660 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought No | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 66¢ | $33,916 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought No | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 63¢ | $42,263 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought No | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 74¢ | $17,750 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought Yes | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 68¢ | $3,130 |
| 2026-10-25 | Bought Yes | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 60¢ | $9,439 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | $387 | 50¢ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $231 | 50¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.