Traders › mombil
mombil: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x68c2…1711 · Tailwhale rank #186 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
41/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+4.4 pts
Win rate
56% of positions
Markets traded
412 in 180 days
PnL: $76,720 this month · ROI on closed positions -0.1%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
41.4 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 46/100 | 18.4 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +4.4 pts on 420 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 0/100 | 0.0 | Return with the three best positions removed (-6.2%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 67/100 | 10.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 29/100 | 4.3 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 412 | 8.7 | 412 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +4.4 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 420 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +4.4 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 56% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $552,064 |
| culture | $40,469 |
| finance | $8,879 |
| crypto | $5,721 |
| tech | −$1,368 |
| sports | −$5,518 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 9:00 PM ET? | 67¢ | $14 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 10:00 PM ET? | 77¢ | $42 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold Yes | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | 99¢ | $9,939 |
| 2026-11-13 | Sold No | Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 14¢ | $24 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 3¢ | $94 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 3¢ | $6,078 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 13¢ | $3,112 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader? | 11¢ | $335 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027? | 31¢ | $72 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 61¢ | $1,440 |
| 2026-11-12 | Sold Yes | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 39¢ | $606 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 18¢ | $1,157 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | 33¢ | $2,121 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027? | 46¢ | $307 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought Yes | Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027? | 30¢ | $3,641 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | $25,427 | 82¢ |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $4,886 | 2¢ |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $4,504 | 4¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $3,874 | 12¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $1,110 | 16¢ |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $937 | 2¢ |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $782 | 6¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.