Traders › Monopoly_Money
Monopoly_Money: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0x7ea7…79ac · Tailwhale rank #196 by skill · ★★☆☆☆
Skill Score
40/100 · 2★
Beat the odds
+5.7 pts
Win rate
73% of positions
Markets traded
61 in 180 days
PnL: $127,255 this month · ROI on closed positions 30.1%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 2 stars: the score breakdown
39.7 out of 100 → 2★ (20–39.9 = 2★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 21/100 | 8.2 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +5.7 pts on 59 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 8/100 | 1.5 | Return with the three best positions removed (+1.5%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 61 | 6.0 | 61 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +5.7 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 59 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +5.7 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 73% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $20,311 |
| sports | $16,741 |
| crypto | $11,361 |
| finance | $1,050 |
| culture | −$30,818 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Kimberly Powell announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? | 45¢ | $41 |
| 2026-11-09 | Bought Yes | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | 86¢ | $532 |
| 2026-11-05 | Bought Yes | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 49¢ | $49 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 66¢ | $149 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought Yes | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 66¢ | $391 |
| 2026-11-04 | Bought No | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 77¢ | $243 |
| 2026-10-13 | Bought No | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 65¢ | $3,250 |
| 2026-10-07 | Sold No | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 35¢ | $35 |
| 2026-09-29 | Bought Yes | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 3¢ | $35 |
| 2026-09-20 | Sold No | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | 75¢ | $869 |
| 2026-09-15 | Bought No | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 94¢ | $94 |
| 2026-09-03 | Bought No | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | 84¢ | $84 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bought Yes | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | 9¢ | $45 |
| 2026-07-11 | Bought Max Holloway | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | 74¢ | $100 |
| 2026-07-10 | Bought Yes | Trump signs housing bill by end of July? | 2¢ | $23 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $25,645 | 24¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $6,410 | 19¢ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | $1,364 | 65¢ |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | $982 | 78¢ |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | $789 | 81¢ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $466 | 32¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.