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pleaseletmealone: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xcb8d…8d08 · Tailwhale rank #73 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
60/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
−7.5 pts
Win rate
41% of positions
Markets traded
294 in 180 days
PnL: $227,325 this month · ROI on closed positions 31.2%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
59.9 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star). Capped below 4★ (see below).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 50/100 | 20.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: -7.5 pts on 22 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 29/100 | 5.8 | Return with the three best positions removed (+5.8%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 294 | 8.2 | 294 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | -7.5 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 22 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 41% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Capped at 59.9: on 22 resolved positions this wallet did worse than the market's own odds (-7.5 pts), so it can't show 4–5 stars.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $37,889 |
| sports | $8,427 |
| culture | $5,708 |
| tech | $4,493 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | 25¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | 25¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | 11¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | 25¢ | $25 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | 11¢ | $11 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 3¢ | $99 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 90¢ | $179 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 9¢ | $16 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 9¢ | $46 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 88¢ | $440 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 0¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 2¢ | $100 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 18¢ | $979 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $47 |
| 2026-11-14 | Sold Yes | Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | 10¢ | $51 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $1,212 | 1¢ |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | $382 | 98¢ |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $233 | 1¢ |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | $150 | 1¢ |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | $143 | 1¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.