Traders › StarMaster
StarMaster: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xeca0…e8f8 · Tailwhale rank #61 by skill · ★★★★☆
Skill Score
64/100 · 4★
Beat the odds
+2.1 pts
Win rate
55% of positions
Markets traded
1,592 in 180 days
PnL: $85,412 this month · ROI on closed positions 2.7%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 4 stars: the score breakdown
63.6 out of 100 → 4★ (60–79.9 = 4★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 62/100 | 24.9 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +2.1 pts on 1658 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 8/100 | 1.7 | Return with the three best positions removed (+1.7%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 80/100 | 12.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 1592 | 10.0 | 1592 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +2.1 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 1658 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +2.3 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 55% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $81,391 |
| finance | $2,614 |
| tech | $1,541 |
| crypto | $1,377 |
| sports | −$2,833 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026? | 65¢ | $163 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by November 30, 2026? | 52¢ | $260 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 3 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | 54¢ | $135 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2028? | 66¢ | $264 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2028? | 79¢ | $196 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2028? | 73¢ | $218 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31? | 59¢ | $148 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | 61¢ | $235 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | 61¢ | $122 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | 53¢ | $213 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will Syria join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2027? | 56¢ | $169 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30? | 64¢ | $1,595 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought Yes | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 69¢ | $1,035 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the US rank 19th or higher in the World Happiness Report 2027? | 55¢ | $22 |
| 2026-11-14 | Bought No | Will the US rank 19th or higher in the World Happiness Report 2027? | 48¢ | $145 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $4,625 | 88¢ |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | $2,958 | 73¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.