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lastminwin: Polymarket trader record
Wallet 0xb5d1…6e35 · Tailwhale rank #103 by skill · ★★★☆☆
Skill Score
54/100 · 3★
Beat the odds
+15.3 pts
Win rate
53% of positions
Markets traded
30 in 180 days
PnL: $309,859 this month · ROI on closed positions 39.3%. Data snapshot 2026-11-14.
Why 3 stars: the score breakdown
54 out of 100 → 3★ (40–59.9 = 3★; every 20 points is one star).
| Part | Weight | Value | Points | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edge | 40% | 42/100 | 17.0 | Half from how consistently positions made money, half from beating the market's own odds (calibration). Beat the odds: +15.3 pts on 31 resolved positions. |
| Robustness | 20% | 48/100 | 9.6 | Return with the three best positions removed (+9.6%); full marks at +20%. |
| Breadth | 15% | 100/100 | 15.0 | Share of categories traded (≥ $1k PnL either way) that are profitable. |
| Consistency | 15% | 50/100 | 7.5 | Share of active months (3+ positions) that ended in profit. |
| Markets traded | 10% | 30 | 4.9 | 30 distinct markets in 180 days; full marks at 1,000. |
| Beat the odds | – | +15.3 pts | – | Average of outcome minus entry price over 31 positions in resolved markets (exits before resolution count half). Positive = bought cheaper than the eventual result. |
| Calibration | – | +15.1 pts | – | Average profit per share bought, over all positions, in price points. |
| Win rate | – | 53% | – | Share of positions closed in profit (not part of the score: a high win rate on favourites says little). |
Gates passed: at least 20 markets, no single win above half of profits, no market-maker pattern.
Category record
| Category | All-time PnL |
|---|---|
| politics | $264,688 |
Recent trades
| Date (UTC) | Side | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027? | 25¢ | $2,255 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought Yes | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0¢ | $529 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bought No | Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 96¢ | $79 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 17¢ | $493 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | 15¢ | $179 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | 1¢ | $127 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought Yes | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 5¢ | $326 |
| 2026-11-12 | Bought No | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 90¢ | $1,855 |
| 2026-11-11 | Bought No | Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election? | 98¢ | $496 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 9¢ | $247 |
| 2026-11-11 | Sold Yes | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | 9¢ | $37 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $120 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 1¢ | $120 |
| 2026-11-10 | Bought Yes | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 3¢ | $420 |
| 2026-11-09 | Bought No | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 97¢ | $2,320 |
Open positions in top markets
| Market | Outcome | Value | Avg entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | $206,570 | 79¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | $75,283 | 90¢ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | $75,120 | 64¢ |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | $60,870 | 87¢ |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | $54,267 | 94¢ |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | $53,067 | 93¢ |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | $42,575 | 85¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | $31,840 | 72¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | $26,050 | 85¢ |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | $14,790 | 84¢ |
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The Skill Score is Tailwhale's own estimate from public data (how it works). Past results don't predict future returns. Public profile on Polymarket.